Good Sunday evening everyone. After a period of clouds with rain/snow on Friday and Saturday, Mother Nature at least gave us a nice Sunday to end the weekend. With the sun shining, we went from lows near 30 degrees to highs in the mid 40s this afternoon. Now, our short-term focus shifts to our next system with rain on Monday and our first weather alert day on Tuesday. Before its arrival, some areas in the northwest Ozarks will see winter weather advisories Tuesday morning and continue into Tuesday evening. Additionally, many of us will have wind advisories for Monday and into Tuesday.
While southeast winds tonight and tomorrow will range between 10 and 30 mph before shifting out of the northwest on Tuesday, winds will be slightly higher on both days. Daytime wind gusts should range between 35 and 45 mph across much of the Ozarks.
This expected increase in our winds is all due to our storm system ready to move out of northwestern New Mexico.
By Monday morning, the lowest level will be in the Texas Panhandle. While moisture and cold air will bring snow to parts of western Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico, building moisture will allow rain to begin to fall by the end of the morning commute. During the mid-morning through afternoon, rain is expected to be on the radar in many of the Ozarks. While it's possible that some pockets of cold air will allow some snowflakes to mix in, we'll mainly have to deal with rain on Monday that could total between a half inch to an inch.
By Monday night and pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, we should see calmer conditions on the radar with clouds remaining. This is because we expect the low to track the Ozarks from the southwest. For those who want snow, you can see how this trail pushes better snow accumulation opportunities to the north.
Although this track is not ideal for the Ozarks to see several inches of snow, we will still have colder air coming in on the back side of this system with scattered rain showers by Tuesday morning. As cold air moves in, that will turn rain chances to snow after 7 or 8 a.m. Tuesday. Snow showers should stick around through Tuesday afternoon before any remaining snow showers leave by 9 or 10pm Tuesday night as our system moves toward the northeast. Remember that as snow falls, it may make managing the roads a bit difficult. Additionally, any wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph may attempt to reduce visibility at times. This could also be an issue for any local/regional travel.
If we had stuck with the southerly track that previous indicators showed last week, we would have had a better chance of seeing those heavy loads in action in more of the Ozarks. Given the current path things will take at the top and how temperatures will drop through Tuesday, many in the blue will see 1 to 3 inches of snow in total. Areas in the lighter shade southeast of Branson, Ava and Perryville could pick up a dusting of up to an inch of snow. Any expected amounts of 3 inches or more should be limited to areas near and north of Osceola, Camdenton, Dixon and Rolla.
The weather will be calm with mostly sunny skies on Wednesday and clear skies on Thursday. Then indicators point to another storm system that could give us rain and snow chances again by Friday. While it's still too early to know what we'll get in terms of rain and snow on Friday, that has always been in the forecast over the past couple of days. After this system, next weekend looks quiet with plenty of cold air returning.
As for temperatures, temperatures will drop to the mid-30s for many by sunrise Monday morning. Despite southeast winds of 20-30 mph with gusts near 45 at times, cloud and rain chances will only keep highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees for Monday. However, these winds will make it feel like the temperature is in the upper 20s to 30 degrees all day long.
After midnight highs in the upper 30s Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures drop back into the mid-30s for many of us by 6 a.m. Tuesday morning. We will drop into the lower 30s by early Tuesday afternoon and back into the upper 20s by early Tuesday afternoon. Don't forget that winds will force wind chill values into the teens as temperatures drop in the afternoon and evening.
While the trend looks encouraging midweek with highs back in the mid to upper 40s, it won't last long.
Friday's system should bring morning highs around 43 degrees before dropping through the 30s to lower 20s by early Friday evening. Saturday and Sunday look cold. Saturday should start with lows in the mid teens and highs near 30 degrees. Next Sunday could have lows near 8 degrees in the morning and highs near 20 degrees.
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