But it is known that modern Ethiopia is a landlocked country. Except for a few decades in the 20th century when Ethiopia annexed neighboring Eritrea, Africa's second-most populous country has had no coastline at all. It maintains a meager naval fleet, mostly river, and pays tiny Djibouti about $1.5 billion annually for privileged access to its ports and coastal infrastructure.
That's why Abiy Ahmed, the ambitious Ethiopian prime minister, has long had visions of access to the sea. He protested against his country's “geographical imprisonment” and invoked the legacy of medieval seafaring empires as one that the contemporary Ethiopian state must reclaim. Ethiopia's deep economic problems and ongoing internecine conflicts have not affected Abiy's desires for access to the sea – in fact, they may fuel them.
Last week, in what was a geopolitical bombshell in the Horn of Africa, Abiy appeared to have achieved his goal. Abiy, along with Musa Bihi Abdi, president of the self-declared separatist republic of Somaliland, announced that the two parties had reached a memorandum of understanding under which Somaliland would lease to Ethiopia about 12 miles of its coast through the port of Berbera. In contrast, an autonomous entity within internationally recognized Somali territory might win something more valuable: diplomatic recognition from Addis Ababa.
Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia three decades ago. Amidst the wave of unrest that turned the country into a permanent failed state. It includes the northwestern flank of Somalia, and represents territory that was once under British protection and was separate from the Italian colony that mostly made up the rest of what is now known as independent Somalia. The breakaway republic prints its own currency, maintains its own political institutions, and has gained a reputation as one of the most stable corners of the Horn of Africa — certainly more so than areas controlled by the embattled government in Mogadishu.
But beyond its ties of solidarity with the self-governing island of Taiwan, Somaliland is not recognized by any UN member state – and certainly by any major regional power in Africa. Officials in the autonomous region expect that this agreement, if achieved, will lead to a tangible transformation.
“Their hope is that wherever Ethiopia goes, the rest of Africa will follow: the African Union is headquartered in Addis Ababa,” the Economist explained. “Abe also has strong ties with the UAE. Some foreign diplomats suspect that the UAE, also close to the Somali government, may have played a role in brokering the deal.
Cash-strapped Ethiopia is also paying for port access by giving Somaliland authorities a stake in the national carrier, a major continental carrier. But political gains are clearly the more important factor here for Somaliland, while Abiy hopes to succeed where previous efforts have failed.
The New York Times noted that “Ethiopia’s government has sought for years to diversify access to its seaports, including exploring options in Sudan and Kenya.” “In 2018, I signed a deal to acquire a 19 percent stake in the port of Berbera, but the deal fell through.”
But Somalia is angry. The country's ambassador to Addis Ababa was summoned. Protests and marches were held against the developments in Mogadishu. On Saturday, the country's president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, signed a draft law that symbolically invalidates the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, because the latter is within Somalia's internationally recognized borders. He said: “This law is an example of our commitment to preserving our unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity in accordance with international law.”
It is also an example of Mogadishu's weakness in recent years, and its inability to accept or revoke Somaliland's de facto independence. But other major international blocs and powers have stood by Somalia: the European Union, the African Union, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic States have issued statements urging Ethiopia not to move forward.
Josep Borrell, the European Union's chief diplomat, announced after a phone call with the Somali president that “the Horn of Africa does not need more tensions.”
The United States called for the conflict to be settled through dialogue. So did Britain, which issued a statement expressing its “full respect” for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Turkey, which has a large footprint in Somalia and implicit competition with the UAE across the region, also expressed its support for the “unity” of Somalia.
Abe's critics in the region portray him as such A potential hegemon in East Africa. But he said his country had “no desire to forcefully coerce anyone” through this deal, and simply wanted to diversify (and reduce the cost of) its access to the sea. The move may also strengthen Abe at home, who is suffering from a deteriorating economy and devastating ethnic conflicts.
“It will give Abiy the opportunity to rehabilitate his unpopular image in the country due to his wars in the Tigray region, the violent rebellions in the Amhara and Oromo regions, as well as the economic recession that the country has faced in the past few years,” Mustafa Ahmed said. An analyst and researcher based in Hargeisa, the de facto capital of Somaliland, told Al Jazeera. “Sea access has been presented as an existential issue for Ethiopian leaders over the years, and with this new agreement, it will give Abiy domestic political gains.”
J. Peter Pham, a former US ambassador and Washington's envoy to the region, dismissed concerns that the potential agreement would spark a broader crisis. “It is a real win-win, and respects the reality of what is on the ground in the Horn of Africa, not theoretical theories.” He told the BBC.
