opinion
Recent polls suggest that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are struggling to maintain support among key voting blocs – including blacks, Latinos, and voters under 35.
The mainstream media tries to downplay the importance of poll numbers by suggesting that those groups, which Democrats traditionally rely on in presidential elections, will eventually come out and vote blindly for their party.
But will they? The Policy Insider spoke with our experts about this topic.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, released at the beginning of the year, shows Biden suffering from what they describe as a “crumbling coalition.”
“President Joe Biden is heading into the election year and showing alarming weakness among Democratic base supporters, with Donald Trump leading among Hispanic voters and young people,” the newspaper reported. “One in five black voters now say they will support a third-party candidate in November.”
RELATED: Experts divided over new poll showing Black, Hispanic and young voters abandoning Biden
Democratic experts downplay polls showing Biden losing support from key voters
Democratic political strategists have tried to downplay these new polls that show bleeding support for Biden and Harris from their traditionally reliable voters, the ones who tick the demographic boxes they constantly play on.
Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton's failed 2016 presidential campaign, ran to The Grio to suggest no, the skies are open. no drop.
“Nothing in any of the recent polls dissuades the belief that there is a path for Biden to get to the winning numbers he needs among Black voters, with young voters, and with the general electorate,” Payne said.
Payne also points out that the aforementioned USA Today poll indicates that a large share (20% of Hispanic and black voters, 21% of young voters) of registered voters are flirting with the idea of not voting for Biden. or Trump, instead choosing a third-party candidate.
The Grio expert points out that the vast majority of voters who are dismayed by the two party's candidates will switch to the Democrats.
“There is a path for Biden to get back to his winning number… because these voters are unlikely to abandon Biden en masse and go to Trump,” Payne said.
RELATED: New York Times alarmed by its own poll showing Trump getting support from black voters 'invisible…in the modern era'
Here's what actual experts tell political insiders
You'll have to forgive us here at The Policy Insider for not necessarily taking the word “experts” in The Grio as gospel. However, we spoke to our experts about this topic, and their responses seem to indicate that the polls showing Biden and Harris struggling with minorities and young voters are somewhat complicated.
Cornell University professor William Jacobson expressed doubt that these polls would lead to a Trump victory in 2024.
I think it is too early to know whether this is a real reorganization or just a mirage. “We saw similar claims in 2020, and there was no realignment among Black voters.”
He continued: “So far, all of this is hypothetical among voters, and the Democrats have not yet launched their campaign against Trump.” “So I wouldn't be too excited.”
Mark Mitchell, head of polling at Rasmussen Reports, sees the outlook as slightly more positive for Trump than Professor Jacobson.
“Our last matchup in 2024, Biden won black voters by just 22 points, and Trump won Hispanic voters by 23 points. Mitchell explained that these are huge advantages for Trump compared to previous elections, and if they continue, they make Trump unbeatable.
“While it is true that focusing on abortion may be a good strategy for Biden to win back some of these voters, the reality is that there is probably an equal or greater chance for Trump to retain them by focusing on the issue of illegal immigration.” he added.
“Our tracking index of U.S. sentiment toward immigration, sponsored by NumbersUSA, is near its lowest level since Biden’s election, despite the fact that the views of Black and Latino voters are relatively unchanged on the issue,” Jacobson concluded.
To Professor Jacobson's point, we certainly are an act We hear from right-leaning media in 2020 that a massive wave of black and Hispanic voters will lead Trump to victory.
Multiple polls conducted in roughly the same time frame before the 2020 presidential election showed Trump with support of more than 30% of Black voters.
However, Biden received 92% of the black vote, which is almost indistinguishable from the turnout and support of previous Democratic presidential candidates.
Likewise, Hispanic voter support for Biden was 66% compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, when she received 65% of their votes.
However, it's not just the USA Today poll that shows Biden and Harris losing support among black voters.
a The New York Times A November poll shows Trump's support from black voters is approaching previously unheard-of levels.
The Times expressed concern that “Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and Mr. Biden — now record 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unprecedented in presidential politics for a modern-day Republican.”
what do you think? Should these surveys be encouraged or should we not put much importance into them? Let us know in the comments section below and on social media.
It's time to support and share the sources you trust.
The Policy Insider ranks third on Feedspot's “Top 100 Political Blogs and Websites” list.
