Temperatures are likely to be above average this winter across much of the northern part of the United States, including the Northeast and much of the West Coast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday in its seasonal outlook.
But a slightly warmer winter doesn't necessarily mean there will be less snow. A strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to be the driving force behind the overall outlook for this winter, bringing above-normal temperatures across much of the country and increasing precipitation levels in the southern United States, especially the Southeast.
The forecast, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, comes after the 2022-2023 winter was the second-warmest on record in the Northeast, and after the first measurable snow arrived in New York City this late in the season. than has ever been recorded. Although warmer temperatures may once again prevail in the Northeast, more of the Northeast could arrive in major East Coast cities this winter.
El Niño could also bring wetter-than-average conditions across California, after a year that dumped more than 20 inches of rain in parts of the state, landslides, heavy snow and blizzards that left some residents and tourists stranded for days. .
“There is some hope for snow lovers,” John Gottschalk, chief of the Climate Prediction Center's Operational Forecasting Branch, told reporters Thursday.
But this is likely to only be the case in some places.
Winter forecast by region
True to expectations, but with a pinch of salt.
When meteorologists issue these forecasts, they are providing an measured probability that temperatures and precipitation will be above or below average. But if there's a 20% chance that temperatures will be above average, that doesn't mean there won't be record cold outbreaks. Likewise, if a dry winter is forecast, that doesn't mean there won't be a huge snowstorm.
Last year, forecasters predicted that California's winter would be warmer and drier than average. But the Southwest experienced colder temperatures and cascading weather rivers, drenching the region with rainfall. To be fair to forecasters, such unpredictable seasonal conditions can occur in any season.
El Niño will affect weather patterns.
The stronger El Niño is, the more likely it is to affect temperature and precipitation around the world because it affects the jet stream, a fast river of wind at a level of the atmosphere where planes often fly. During the winter months in North America, it plays a major role in separating warm and cold air masses, all while channeling storms from the Pacific Ocean across the continent. A change in the jet stream's location will have a significant impact on the weather that occurs across the United States.
However, meteorologists warn that there are many other factors at play: for example, the Arctic Oscillation could cause a sudden outbreak in the Arctic that allows nor'easters to develop, or the Madden-Julian Oscillation could increase the amount of precipitation in the Arctic. . North West.
Then there is the impact of climate change, which meteorologists take into account when making their forecasts. “Winter is one of the warmest and fastest seasons in many places across the country,” said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
