Ready or not, winter is coming – but how bad can it get? Federal forecasters from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave us their answer Thursday in their annual winter outlook.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the 2023-2024 U.S. winter will likely be dominated by the effects of what could be a strong El Niño. This means that there will likely be a mild, dry winter across much of the northern part of the United States, while the southeastern United States is expected to experience a wetter than average winter.
The center's forecasts cover the months of December, January and February, which is known as the meteorological winter.
What is the forecast for winter?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said warmer-than-average temperatures are favored throughout the northern tier of the United States and much of the Far West. The greatest potential for warmer than average conditions is in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England. No parts of the country are expected to be colder than average, according to the forecast.
As for precipitation, conditions are likely to be wetter than average in northern Alaska, parts of western California to the south-central Rocky Mountains, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast, and lower mid-Atlantic, according to National Oceanic Administration forecasts. and the atmosphere (NOAA).
“The enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often experienced during strong El Niño events support high prospects for above-average precipitation over the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeastern states this winter,” said John Gottschalk, of the Climate Prediction Center.
Wet conditions across the South should help alleviate drought in the region: “El Niño, combined with increasing precipitation, is expected to provide drought relief for the southern United States over the next few months,” said Brad Pugh of the Climate Prediction Center.
As for where a dry winter is likely, conditions are expected to be drier than average in parts of the northern Rockies and the central Great Lakes region, especially in Michigan, northern Ohio and Indiana.
What role does El Niño play in our winter?
The main factor that federal climatologists use to predict winter weather is the strength of El Niño or La Niña, weather patterns that affect the weather in the United States and around the world. The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which oscillates between warmer and cooler seawater in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
(El Niño is unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean; La Niña is cooler than average water in the Pacific Ocean.)
The El Niño phenomenon, which began in June, is expected to continue throughout the winter. The Climate Prediction Center said the phenomenon could be “historically powerful,” potentially rivaling those that occurred in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.
Let it snow?:Winter forecasts begin with the intensification of El Niño. Here's what forecasters are saying.
What about blizzards and blizzards?
The forecast released on Thursday predicts only places where temperatures are likely to be higher or lower than normal – and precipitation higher or lower than normal.
This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall in the form of rain, snow or ice, just that it will likely be more or less overall. The center has said in the past that snow forecasts depend on the strength and path of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance.
As for the 50 million Americans who live in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, where big snowstorms usually bring the most concern, the climate center does not provide specific forecasts for how much snow will fall.
How cold and snowy will the winter be in the United States?:Why might October snows in Siberia hold the answer?
Other styles are not counted
Weather patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation — which could unleash frigid temperatures across the central and eastern United States — are not included in this official forecast at this time because they cannot be predicted more than a week or two in advance.
Other large-scale weather patterns in the atmosphere that can influence winter weather include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events along the West Coast. The Climate Prediction Center says it could also contribute to other extreme events in the U.S., including arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern parts of the country.
The forecast also does not take into account snow cover in Siberia, which other forecasters use as the basis for their winter weather forecasts.
