First Alert Weather team updated forecast for weekend snowfall in New York City, New Jersey, Long Island and Connecticut

New York — For snow lovers throughout the Tri-State area, the past few years have been tough.

Not only was 2023 the least snowy calendar year on record, but last winter was also the least snowy.

It fell only 2.3 inches and It's been almost 700 days Since then, more than an inch of snow has fallen in the park, also a record.

In fact, for most of the past five years, average or above average snowfall has been difficult to achieve.

The only exception was the winter of 2020-21. In an average winter, 29.8 inches typically falls.

Can we finally break the streak this weekend?

In the short term, yes, this is definitely possible. However, there are certain factors that must come together. It is now clear that a major winter storm will move into the tri-state area Saturday afternoon into Sunday. With its origins in the southwest, the storm will be able to collect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, as well as dynamic energy and some cool air from the north.

Latest data

The forecast for this storm was particularly challenging, with almost every forecast model predicting varying amounts of snow, but it appears that at least some areas may double or even triple the amount of snow they saw all of last winter. This would be fairly easy to achieve, given these meager numbers last year.

Our two most reliable models, the European and the GFS, also known as the American model, depict plowable snow in at least some area, but differ in their final totals.

The storm's current European track would take it further east than previous tracks. This could bring cold air into the storm, bringing slightly higher totals at the coast, while still delivering some decent snow amounts to higher elevations.

On the other hand, the GFS is also tracking the storm eastward now. In this setting, the storm will be able to pull in cold air from the north, producing more snow on the coast, with totals of more than a foot at higher elevations.

Rain and mixed precipitation for areas south and east of the city were imaged by both models.

By the time the storm reaches this area, it will be a coastal storm. For this reason, hazardous conditions associated with coastal storms, such as high winds and coastal flooding, can be expected. Wind speeds may reach nearly 50 mph on the immediate coast.

Both models were constantly oscillating back and forth between low and high snow totals. As a general rule, consistency within forecast models is essential to producing accurate forecasts, and for this storm, consistency was sorely lacking.

Factors contributing to the uncertainty between models are the lack of very cold air at the beginning of the storm, and nearby ocean temperatures are still above average. This affects where the rain/snow line is located along the coast, and ultimately controls the amount of snow that falls.

A cold air mass firmly entrenched at the beginning of the storm would ensure an all-snow event, and cool ocean temperatures would limit mixed precipitation and precipitation from getting into the mix.

Storm breakdown by region

• Jersey Shore and Central New Jersey

It starts out as rain or mixed precipitation, changes to all rain, and then changes to all snow as the storm leaves. Final totals: 0.5-1 inch of rain, layer – 3 inches of snow. Wind speeds reach 50 mph. Coastal flooding and high waves may lead to beach erosion.

It starts out as rain or mixed precipitation, turns to a mix of rain and snow, and then turns to all snow as the storm leaves. Final totals: 0.5-1 inch of rain, 1-3 inches of snow. Wind speeds reach 50 mph. Coastal flooding and high waves may lead to beach erosion.

It starts out as snow or mixed precipitation, turning to a mix of rain and snow, then maybe rain for a while, before turning to all snow as the storm leaves. Final totals: 0.5-1 inch of rain, 1-3 inches of snow. The Bronx may see higher snow totals. Wind speeds reach 35 mph.

• (Hudson Valley, northern New Jersey).

This is where the highest snow totals are expected to arrive. Little or no mixing with rain is expected here. The snow may be heavy at times, up to 4-8 inches, with some spots possible reaching a foot or more. Wind speeds reach 35 mph.

It starts snowing, turns into a wintry mix, and then ends with 2-3 inches of snow. Winds will reach 40 mph, with some minor coastal flooding.

Whether or not this storm is the one that ends our snow-free streak, long-range forecast models indicate that an overall pattern change is underway, and more phased storms may occur in the future.