newly The New York TimesFor example, a Siena College poll showed Trump going from a four-point lead over Biden across five key swing states to a 10-point deficit if convicted. Such a shift, which has been emulated in many other polls, could severely weaken Republicans' chances of returning to power.
miscarriage
If you want to know how much this issue will affect votes, just look at the 2022 midterm elections and last November's state races in Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia.
Pro-abortion protesters outside the US Supreme Court in Washington after the ruling in Roe v. Wade was overturned.credit: Bloomberg
In both cases, Democrats defied expectations, in part because of ongoing concerns about the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which gave women in America the constitutional right to an abortion.
In the midterms, Biden overcame a “red wave” that could have resulted in Democrats losing control of the House and Senate (instead, they held the Senate and narrowly lost the House).
Last year's state elections also provided the party with a ray of hope.
In the Republican-led state of Ohio, a majority of voters agreed to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. In Kentucky, the incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, was re-elected over his anti-abortion Republican challenger; In Virginia, Democrats won control of the state legislature after popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigned for an abortion “reasonable limit” that would have banned most abortions after 15 weeks.
The results were a resounding victory for Democrats, and a sign that the issue represents a stronger motivating force than Biden's declining approval ratings.
US Supreme Court
In recent years, the highest court in the United States has restricted access to abortion, expanded the right to bear arms, and given religion a greater role in schools and businesses.
Now, the US Supreme Court is set to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election as it determines Trump's fate. Months after being accused by special counsel Jack Smith of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Trump is now seeking immunity from prosecution, arguing that the case should be dismissed because it arose from actions he took while in the White House.
US Supreme Court justices.credit: AP
On Thursday (AEDT), Trump appealed Colorado's controversial decision to remove him from the ballot in that state's Republican primary race at the Supreme Court. The latest legal move comes after the state Supreme Court found that Trump was involved in insurrection and was therefore removed from office.
If the court overturns Colorado's decision, such a decision could have national implications for the election because several other states have also faced legal challenges to removing Trump from their ballots using the same provision of the U.S. Constitution, but in many cases, those challenges have been dismissed. Or remain in limbo.
Third party candidates
As it stands, the 2024 US election will likely come down to a choice between an uninspiring octogenarian president and a former president who has been impeached twice and indicted four times. But the fact that many Americans are unenthusiastic about both Biden and Trump provides fertile ground for third-party and independent candidates to shake up the competition.
In June, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: “Everyone realizes they no longer live in a democracy.”credit: AP
The most famous by far is Robert F. Kennedy, the scion of an American political dynasty, who broke with the Democrats in October to run as an independent.
Progressive activist Cornel West is also trying to run independently. Retired Senator from West Virginia, Joe Manchin, did not rule this out; The third-party centrist group No Labels, run by moderate Republican Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland, is working to secure ballot access for a candidate who has not yet been named.
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While the chances of a third-party candidate winning the election are slim, a recent Gallup poll indicated that as many as 63 percent of Americans believe “a third major party is needed.” To that end, the possibility of several additional candidates appearing on the ballot could end up hemorrhaging votes from Biden or Trump – ultimately making the difference in a very close election.
Biden cannot finish the race..
While it may be uncomfortable to discuss the life expectancy of a sitting president, there is no escaping the fact that Biden is not getting younger or fitter. The 81-year-old is the oldest person to occupy the White House and will turn 86 at the end of his second term.
In fact, the Democrat's age and overall ability to do the job are among the main reasons why many voters, including Democrats, prefer an alternative candidate. A recent Monmouth University poll showed that only three in ten Americans approved of his job performance – his lowest rating since he took office and the worst of any modern-day president seeking re-election.
His handling of immigration is under increasing attack thanks to the record number of people crossing the US-Mexico border illegally. His failure to support the Gaza ceasefire cost him support among progressives and youth; His message about boosting the economy has no resonance.
Biden said he's running because he believes he's the only Democrat who can beat Trump — and that he might not have sought re-election if it weren't for his controversial predecessor. But if Trump does not ultimately become the Republican nominee, or if the president's poll numbers continue to decline, or if his health takes a dangerous or fatal turn, the election will be turned upside down as Democrats scramble to install another candidate.
Get ready people, it's going to be an election year like no other.
