- A major winter storm is increasingly likely in the northern United States this week.
- This storm will spread snow and some ice from the Rocky Mountains to New England.
- It will start on Monday in the west, and then end in the east next Friday.
Winter Storm Olive is set to track across the country this week, spreading snow, ice and chronic travel from the Rocky Mountains and northern plains to the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast.
Although February is one of the warmest months on record for parts of the Midwest and Northeast, it is also the month with the highest number of winter storms in the United States over the past 10 years.
A few days after the winter storm, another long strip of snow and ice is ahead.
W inter Storm Olive was named before it was formed by The Weather Channel.
Timing
– From Monday to Tuesday nights: Snow spreads from the northern Rocky Mountains to the northern plains, and perhaps as far east as the Twin Cities.
Tuesday forecast
(Areas of rain, snow, ice, and mixed rain are shown by color lines. Surface wind forecasts are indicated by arrows, with dark blue and purple shading showing stronger forecast winds.)
– From Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Snow, along with some sleet and sleet, is common in the Great Lakes region and parts of the Northeast.
– Thursday through Thursday night: Snowfall, along with some sleet and sleet, is decreasing in the western Great Lakes but may continue in parts of New York and New England before venturing out late Thursday night.
(maps: Daily rain/snow forecast for the next 7 days for the United States)
Wednesday night forecast
(Areas of rain, snow, ice, and mixed rain are shown by color lines. Surface wind forecasts are indicated by arrows, with dark blue and purple shading showing stronger forecast winds.)
How much snow and ice?
S now
Although it’s still too early to pinpoint precisely projected snow totals, there is a wide swath west to east from the high plains of Montana and Wyoming to South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan, then northern New York and northern New England. The best chance of snow is at least 6 inches from this storm.
P arts from the northern plains in the upper Midwest are more likely to pick up at least one foot of snow.
Most areas from the Ohio Valley to the tri-state area of New York City and south should see rain from this storm.
W Ends
Strong winds with this storm could result in snowfall and drifting, as well as difficult travel in parts of the northern plains and upper Midwest, especially from Wednesday through Thursday.
ice
In addition to the travel headache, a combination of sleet and freezing rain can generally accompany a storm on the southern end of the snowfall accumulation map below, from the southern Great Lakes to the inland Northeast and New England.
It is too early to quantify expected amounts of ice buildup, but this could at least be slick roads and, in some locations, be enough to cause some tree damage and power outages.
We will refine these projections in the coming days as the details become clearer; Check back frequently for updates.
Snow and rain forecast
(Although it’s too far back in time for accurate forecast totals, areas in the purple and pink contours have the highest chance of heavy snow. Areas in dark green have the best chance of heavy rain.)
What is this big winter storm?
Winter storms usually extend to much of the real estate in February because cold air is plentiful and the jet stream is strong in this prime winter month.
In this case, the cold air does not spread far enough, but it will sink into the West, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes as it seeps south from eastern Canada into northern New England and parts of the inland Northeast.
The jet stream will be very energetic, taking a sharp dip to the west, then tossing strong pulses across the plains to the northeast.
This will generate low pressure along the front, separating cooler air from warmer air sharply over the southeast. The moisture being pulled north will overcome the cold air, picking up the snow, sleet, and freezing rain that I alluded to earlier.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather, the environment, and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of its parent company, IBM.
